And just like that, it’s Week 5 in college football, and Michigan is on the road for its first away game in Iowa City.
Various rankings come out each week, including the AP Poll and Coaches Poll.
In this weekly segment, we’ll get away from human polls, go into the computers, and see what the various analytical-based rankings had to say about Michigan each week.
ESPN FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Rank: 4th
Previously: 4th
Notable rankings: Ohio State (2nd), Texas (6th), Oklahoma (8th), Penn State (13th), Minnesota (14th), Maryland (24th), Michigan State (29th), Kentucky (30th), Iowa (41st)
As they did in the human polls, Michigan stayed at 4th in the FPI with a 19.3 rating, narrowly edging Clemson (19.1) for the fourth spot.
Meanwhile, Alabama (30.8), Ohio State (27.5), and Georgia (27.2) have a stronghold on the top three spots. UGA dropped to third after a closer-than-expected matchup at home with Kent State.
Texas remains at No. 6, likely still piggybacking off of its narrow loss at home to the Crimson Tide. Still, at 2-2 and coming off of an overtime loss to unranked Texas Tech, whose rating is below teams like Purdue (2-2), West Virginia (2-2), Iowa (3-1), Western Kentucky (3-1), and more.
Poor old Kentucky. Undefeated at 4-0, but the FPI still ranks them 30th.
ESPN SP+
What is ESPN SP+?
In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Rank: 4th
Previously: 5th
Notable rankings: Ohio State (2nd), Oklahoma (5th), Minnesota (7th), Tennessee (8th), Penn State (10th), Texas (11th), LSU (12th), Clemson (13th), USC (25th), Iowa (27th), Maryland (30th), Michigan State (35th), Florida (44th), Kansas (52nd)
Michigan reclaimed the fourth spot in the SP+ rankings after Oklahoma’s home loss to Kansas State (23rd). The Sooners dropped a spot to fifth.
Connelly’s model loves Minnesota, hot off trouncing Michigan State, ranking them 7th among all FBS teams.
Other notable rankings include Clemson at 13th and USC at 25th, two undefeated teams ranked in the top 10 in both human polls.
Poor Kansas.
Sagarin
What (who) is Sagarin?
Jeff Sagarin made a rating and predictive system, then named it after, well, himself! It’s an excellent way to look at ratings and determine scores in games by how closely or not close two teams rank. Sometimes, it can predict closer games in lopsided matchups or blowouts in closer games on paper.
Rank: 5th
Previously: 5th
Notable rankings: Oklahoma (4th), Utah (6th), USC (7th), LSU (8th), Penn State (9th), Minnesota (10th), Clemson (12th), Tennessee (17th), Notre Dame (20th), Kentucky (27th), Iowa (31st), Maryland (35th), Michigan State (47th), Kansas (49th)
Sagarin is a predictive system, and in keeping it at 4th, they’re projecting a clean final 8 weeks to end the season for Oklahoma, despite that Kansas State (18th) loss mentioned above.
At 86.71, Michigan is ~10 points below Ohio State’s 97.28. If the Wolverines traveled to Columbus this week, Sagarin’s system would make the Buckeyes 13-point home favorites.
Shockingly, Georgia (93.36) trails OSU by a little below four points and Alabama by 3.27 points. If the Bulldogs traveled to Ann Arbor, Sagarin would still make UGA four-point road favorites.
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Source: https://michigan.rivals.com/news/by-the-numbers-where-the-computers-rank-michigan-week-4