Penn State is a 2.5-point favorite over Auburn for Saturday’s matchup over Auburn. Predictions are flowing in from experts and recruiting systems across the country as Week 3 of the college football season kicks off tonight and runs all day Saturday.
The Lions-Tigers matchup is one of this week’s most intriguing contests. It will air nationally on CBS at 3:30 p.m.
Two Penn State-Auburn storylines have dominated the last few days. The Lions are focused on stopping a strong Tigers rushing attack. And, Saturday’s home team is focused on avenging last year’s 28-20 loss at Beaver Stadium.
“This is the first test we’re gonna get with a team that likes to run the ball,” Penn State linebacker Curtis Jacobs said Tuesday. “I feel like this is the game you want to be a part of as a linebacker, being able to come downhill, strike, get those tackles. You didn’t you didn’t come to come to Penn State to be a linebacker to watch somebody play seven-on-seven against you. So it’s gonna be a different type of attitude, a different type of energy. And I feel like me and my guys in the front seven, and really our defense as a whole and just ready for that challenge.”
Then, there was this from Auburn tight end John Samuel Shenker:
“We think we should have won the football game, for sure. That’s left a sour taste in our mouth for a year now, so we’ve had this one circled for a while- the guys that were here last year seeing what happened and what we can do better to win this game this year when they come to our house.”
Here’s a look at how predictions from around the country prior to kickoff.
Computer models pick Penn State-Auburn
Let’s start our Penn State-Auburn prediction rundowns by taking the human element out of play.
At ESPN, Billy Connelly’s SP+ predicts a 25-23 Nittany Lions win. That would mean a Tigers cover and the game going over the 47-point total.
Meanwhile, CBS’ Sportsline calls for the exact same score: 25-23 PSU.
At The Athletic, Austin Mock’s model calls for a Lions win by 2.3 points. It also has the game going over the lined total.
Finally, the largest projected margin of victory from a computer for Penn State comes from The Dunkle Index. It projects an 11-point Lions win and a total that lands on 53.
Lions-Tigers predictions from a national perspective
Kerry Miller at Bleacher Report is calling for a 24-21 Penn State win.
“The change in venue is maybe worth a few points in the Tigers’ favor, but it won’t alter the fact that they are in dire straits at quarterback,” Miller writes. “T.J. Finley and Robby Ashford have combined to throw for one touchdown with four interceptions. And without much fear of getting beat over the top, Penn State can focus on stopping Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter and escaping with a W.”
Bill Bender of Sporting News sees a 27-23 Lions win, as does Pete Fiutak of College Football News. At Yahoo, Sam Cooper calls for an under but has no opinion on the spread.
Finally, there is one national pick in for Auburn. Stewart Mandel of The Athletic sees it 24-20 in favor of the home side.
“Penn State is not the ideal opponent for Auburn to figure out its passing game. Quarterback T.J. Finley had a rough first couple of games, and while Oregon transfer Robby Ashford has seen action, too, it appears Finley is still the guy. Playing at home should give the Tigers a boost, though, and Penn State’s offense might not be better.”
Beat writers pick Penn State-Auburn
Here’s how the BWI team sees Penn State-Auburn playing out:
Nate Bauer: PSU 28, Auburn 24
Thomas Frank Carr: Lions 31, Tigers 17
Sean Fitz: Penn State 31, Auburn 21
Matt Herb: Lions 27, Auburn 24
Greg Pickel: Penn State 24, Auburn 20
Ryan Snyder: Lions 27, Auburn 20
At PennLive, the five-man team posted three predictions in favor of Auburn and two for the Nittany Lions. Tom Green of AL.com, however, is siding with the visitors.
“Again, nothing would totally surprise me this weekend because the game is being played in Jordan-Hare Stadium, but Auburn has not looked great through two weeks,” Green writes.
“Part of the issue last week, I’m sure, was maybe looking ahead to this game. Still, I think Auburn has a few too many unanswered questions to make me confident in picking them in this game.”
Penn State writer Mark Wogenrich of SI.com has it 24-20 in favor of the Lions. JD McCarthy of Auburn Wire, then, sees it 27-23 Penn State.
All told, the picks rundown makes sense. Some think the home field advantage and strong Auburn rushing attack will be too much for James Franklin’s team in its third game of the year. Others side with Vegas and think the Lions are simply the better team, which will lead to a victory.
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