We’re quickly moving into Week 4 of college football, which means Michigan will face its first opponent not ranked below 100th.
Fun!
Various rankings come out each week, including the AP Poll and Coaches Poll.
In this weekly segment, we’ll get away from human polls and go into the computers and see what the various analytical-based rankings had to say about Michigan each week.
Editor’s Note: We planned to use PFF’s weekly Top 25, but through two weeks, still no rankigs released by PFF.
ESPN FPI
What is ESPN FPI?
FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Rank: 4th
Previously: 5th
Notable rankings: Texas (6th), Ole Miss (7th), Tennessee (8th), Penn State (10th), Michigan State (16th), Washington (21st), Kentucky (26th)
Shockingly, the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats rank outside of FPI’s Top 25. But the power ranking system finally agrees with the human polls on Michigan, ranking them inside the top-four for the first time this season.
Michigan went from 9th to 4th in the FPI through three weeks.
ESPN SP+
What is ESPN SP+?
In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Rank: 5th
Previously: 4th
Notable rankings: Oklahoma (4th), Ole Miss (6th), Penn State (9th), Kentucky (10th), Wisconsin (15th), Minnesota (16th), Notre Dame (18th), Mcihigan State (24th)
Michigan dropped a spot after the Sooners jumped U-M after the Wolverines had a strong hold on the fourth spot in SP+ for two weeks.
Elswhere, somehow Notre Dame still has some value, even after Marshall lost outright to previously 0-2 Bowling Green last in Week 3.
Sagarin
What (who) is Sagarin?
Jeff Sagarin made a rating and predictive system, then named it after, well, himself! It’s an excellent way to look at ratings and determine scores in games by how closely or not close two teams rank. Sometimes, it can predict closer games in lopsided matchups or blowouts in closer games on paper.
Rank: 5th
Previously: 8th
Notable rankings: Penn State (6th), USC (7th), Ole Miss (9th), Utah (10th), Wisconsin (13th), Notre Dame (23rd), Michigan State (30th)
The Wolverines finally got some love from Sagarin, which originally power-rated U-M at 9th after Week 1 and 8th after Week 2. Michigan’s ability to run through its non-conference bulldozed them to the top-four, despite the strength of schedule, which is a primary metric for Sagarin.
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Source: https://michigan.rivals.com/news/by-the-numbers-where-the-computers-rank-michigan-after-week-3